In my 30 years of working with technology i’ve seen trends come and go. Never was the technology guilty of the failure, It was hype failing to deliver every time. And we’re here again with AI. New buzzwords, and in some cases the same snake oil salesmen.
I have the type of mind that needs to understand a process or technology entirely before I am comfortable implementing it. I am not a gamer or someone who gets caught up in new features. I’m a pragmatic realist. It is my firm opinion there have been no significant breakthroughs in technology for decades. Just gradual change in the underlying capabilities of existing technology and a fresh spin from the marketing department. The promise I saw for the technological advancements in science fiction has come crashing down.
“The Web, Web 2.0, The Cloud, Virtual Computing, Automation, AI”
The rise of the internet might have appeared to have occurred instantaneously to some, but in reality, it happened over many decades. When I first became involved in the web development in the very early 90’s, computers had already been networked for four decades. The changes leading up to the modern marvel of iPhones (for instance) was incremental. Because every system connected to a network needs to have some shared understanding of what it is being sent and what to do with it that alone takes years. It can take a long time to agree on and implement ICT protocols. I purchased my handbook on next generation mobile data networks in the 1990’s. I had mobile internet years before the general public simply because I asked a Telco if I could join their testing phase and had the technical expertise to perform the minor hacks on my devices.
Microsoft for instance, under the direction of Bill Gates did not support the public internet as we know it today. Microsoft had their own proprietary network called the Microsoft Network. In the first edition of his book ‘The Road Ahead’ he dismissed it entirely. In the early days of the internet the Microsoft operating system needed to be lightly hacked to use a dial up modem. Virtual computing, or the abstraction of Operating Systems and/or Interpretation Layers from computer hardware wasn’t anything new when I was using them in production systems in the 2000’s. The basic concept had been around for many years on Unix operating systems. Someone simply saw an opportunity to commercialise the idea in a proprietary format. I used to laugh to myself knowing these early virtualisation solutions were creating as many problems as they were removing from over complicating the entire technology stack.
I always had a deep appreciation of elegance and robustness and it saddens me when I hear people suggesting their platforms are protected due to contractual agreements or warranties. The uncomfortable truth is a vendor’s 99% uptime translates to three entire days of outages. Any of you who have been involved in a legal dispute where there was a significant commercial loss should rather have a robust system. Machine Learning, Automation and AI (Neural network models) were inspired by the structure and function of biological computers, AKA animal brains. But like Virtual Computing, AI promises much, delivers little and adds additional complexity. Artificial Intelligence as a working concept has been around since the 50’s. The reality is the underlying hardware that was supposed to support diametrically more complex algorithms has been quietly taken out the back and shot. What you are being sold today isn’t what it was supposed to be.
Quantum Computing.
Today, the most powerful computers supporting AI are essentially faster conventional computers, nothing more than series of on-and-off switches. The original promise of AI was to see vastly more powerful hardware capable of astonishingly more complex nonlinear processing. Instead of being limited to essentially two dimensional computing (as conventional ‘bit’ computing is) quantum computing was to use a Qubit, a unit that can exist in multiple states. Sadly, most quantum computing programs have been shelved, and to make matter worse, conventional chip manufacturing is getting close to its physical limits. I liken it to the laws of physics shutting the door on faster computing unless we come up with a fundamentally approach, much like space travel being limited by the very same laws. Streamlining your early retirement.
noting the recent Google announcement of a new 105-qubit 'Willow' quantum chip.
Automation, the precursor of AI has been around for decades and is more widely used than many realise. There is a great deal of misinformation surrounding AI and what professions are most likely to get affected. Computers are good at following pre-configured instructions at lightning speed, but struggle with less defined scenarios. It is true they can use fuzzy-logic to overcome decision making but it, like everything else was over sold in my opinion, it’s not anything like animal brain abstract thought. Any professions that require creativity or soft articulate varied hand work will be last on the streamlining chopping block. In addition, humans do not need to be retooled when a new item arrives on a conveyor belt and are cheaper than robots for short runs. Our flexibility is what brought us down from the trees and might just save us.
I have heard AI described as automated plagiarism from some artistic corners. AI systems gather vast amounts of other people’s content and categorise it in a more advanced (but not altogether different) way to what search engines did. They use programmed algorithms to match responses to requests and adjust the algorithms based on feedback (training). As I see it, the real change is at the presentation layer. Synthesized voices, image, music and video results.
I’m not suggesting AI won’t affect change. I would expect programming, design and administrative roles to be impacted in the next decade along with more manufacturing jobs. And here lies the problem as I see it. The devil finds work for idol hands.
Looking back on human history the precursory conditions that existed before each great war are evident. Unrest from poor economic conditions and boredom became a breeding ground for narcissists to grab power. The next great war might not be fought over geopolitical disagreements, but perceived inequality. I would suggest a revolution fought over the wealth gap is inevitable unless the current trajectory is altered. Leftwing parties are now exclusively run by sociopaths who, from their actions alone, seem to be indifferent to the plight of rising living costs for working class families. Nothing is being done to reign in the growing ultra wealthy class. We see some of the worlds most wealthy elite promoting social and environmental causes with their tax deductable charities all the while lounging on the decks of superyachts. I invite you to investigate how Super-yachts and Executive jets are now being made on production lines. Honda make private jets now. If anyone is going to stand up for the poor, it isn’t going to be a left wing government as they currently stand in the west.
I am a pragmatist, a capitalist and staunch supporter of meritocracies. The western world has provided to its people more fairness than socialism ever did. But a quick look around and it is evident some significant tweaking needs to occur nonetheless. The wealth gap is real, and it benefits nobody.
I have absolutely no problem with some level of wealth. It is extremely important people are presented with some degree of struggle with some degree of reward. That is fundamental to how we function. Not so long ago in evolutionary terms we had a much tougher time. But when it gets to a point when someone people possess more than they could possibly use it’s clearly a mental health issue. A cursory look at the world’s richest people paints a picture of people incapable of maintaining personal relationships or family units.
Rather than a violent uprising a useful first step might be to stop worshipping excess, stop rewarding the unhealthy people with it. Reality TV and social media are brimming with messages supporting excess as a desirable, if not a deserved outcome.
Capitalism isn’t the cruel monster many on the left make it out to be. Capitalist countries are typically more fairer societies. Formal studies into individual motivation show that a desire for mastery is greater than that of wealth itself. Capitalism is more about the acknowledgement of the natural competition for resources. It’s important to remember money is an abstract concept, and simply having a lot of it doesn’t necessarily mean someone is good at anything. It’s entirely possible to make money by simply having access to enough of it.
The danger for capitalist societies is a loss of faith in the mantra of working hard and doing well. It risks the disenchantment of millions and the rise of far-left politics. History again teaches us this journey does not end well. We need to acknowledge together corporate efficiency is often driven by greed and rewards few. We should accept that all people need to work and deserve to be respected. The alternative is a future where the AI might be tasked with something unconscionable.