Given my background it might be somewhat surprising that I am not a proponent of Electric vehicles (EVs). Surely an environmentalist and car enthusiast with a background in technology i'd drive one?
*I should note that since writing this post we have purchased a HEV. Most EV proponents will tell you Hybrids are the devils work because they still use a fossil fuel engine to generate the power for the electric motors.
Yet in their current form EVs make no practical, environmental or economic sense to me. I am not against the EV concept, quieter vehicles that we can refuel ourselves at home sounds wonderful. It's just that from my background in business and technology I can't recognise any real value economically or environmentally, not at least with the current technology. There are too many significant challenges which I don’t believe will overcome before the market collapses. Not even the ill-conceived government mandates and subsidies will help it survive.
It's always about money.
Renewables has become a trillion dollar industry. Those of you familiar with the history of the stock market will know the reason for it's inception was to support the raising of capital for business development. Today stock is frequently released to the market simply to raise money for operations, tech start-ups have been doing this for decades.. Many of these new energy ventures have no proven profitability or are never to be. It's part of a very deliberate strategy to shift the investment in traditional energy stocks into new ventures. Cancel culture driven divestment to enrich the propagandists might by a cynical way to look at it.
Fit for purpose
In much of Australia the reliability, longevity and stamina of vehicles is particularly important with the vast distances involved, which is why diesels are so predominant.
It’s no secret EVs have a limited range, but what is less understood is their reliably. Those of us that have experienced seemingly pristine mobile phones failing for for no other reason other than battery life, might begin to understand. The old adage of ‘no moving parts’ is just not credible as an argument any longer.
The distance regional Australians cover yearly is diametrically further than those in urban areas. For instance, our farm’s longest perimeter is a same distance as the diameter of the average inner-city suburb. Running out of fuel or breaking down during certain times of the year could be life-threatening.
Range anxiety
Compounding the range challenge is the scarcity of charging stations. Without considerable taxpayer funding as either direct government investment or as subsidies there simply will not be more stations built. The private sector has not taken up the option due to the considerable capital expense, and the tricky part; ensuring that they have the necessary high-capacity connection to the power grid. Those of you who were aware of the causation of retail electricity price rises before covid will know it was caused by electricity wholesalers recovering costs of network upgrades. These were not upgrades to support EV charging, Australia will need to go through a whole new round of price hikes to support EV use and renewable feeds and base supplies. No matter how you account for it, it’s robbing Peter to pay Paul. The consumer loses.
Challenges with the platform itself.
Typically, EVs with duel motors and greater battery capacities have increased range, but at the cost of weight and higher purchase price. This is an important point as EVs are for their size very heavy and are already anywhere from 20% to 120% more expensive to purchase. With batteries in a standard EV representing about 30% of the vehicles total cost, it draws further attention to the battery’s lifespan which after nearly a decade of new generation EVs on the road, we know that to be around 5-7 years before they lose efficiency to the point of being useless.
Another perhaps more alarming issue is safety. The additional weight of EVs has drawn the attention of those responsible for public road infrastructure. Recent impact testing has shown that most safety rails are easily penetrated by a speeding EV and run the very great risk of puncturing the battery compartment. Which brings me to the next point.
There is the additional concern that lithium batteries are prone to catching fire either from puncture or overheating. Battery fires have resulted in the destruction of at least two international car carriers with losses in the hundreds of millions. Currently EV are typically more expensive to repair. All of this is resulting in higher insurance premiums.
Cut off dates, the push from investors.
In case you haven’t been paying attention a number of Western governments have mandated mandatory cut off dates for the manufacture of ICE vehicles (2035). Without at least a circa 300% more efficient battery technology being developed and made available, taxpayers on both sides of politics will see astounding volumes of public money invested in upgrading the infrastructure to which they will pay for one way or another. You pay the government, they don't make money.
And I hope somebody is counting all of the carbon emissions rebuilding the electricity grid worldwide. Especially since the carbon emissions generated during the manufacture EV’s isn’t taken into account. If you investigate just the life cycle of lithium batteries you'll see what i mean. The push to renewables has been playing from the same song book as the tech sector. Entrepreneurs looking for Investors after a quick buck.
I’ll charge my EV from my home solar array.
EV owners intending to charge the EV’s from their home supply would need to factor in an immense increase to their electricity bills or purchase an additional solar array and battery for each EV used daily. This is presuming they are intending on regular overnight charge cycles. It is important to keep capacity for home use overnight respectively, so add an extra battery. For me such an additional expense didn’t make any economic sense whatsoever.
the numbers:
- $40,000 in batteries
- $10,000 for an additional inverter and solar array.
- $174,000 for two EVs of comparable spec to the ICE vehicles they replaced.
Something equality important you might not be aware of is the limited lifespan of renewable energy infrastructure and lithium batteries. Solar panels lose efficiency over time and all batteries have limited charge and discharge cycles. I think a conservative estimate is 5 to 7 years. This greatly reduces the return on investment period. Currently EVs have frightening depreciation likewise home solar infrastructure. This renders any or all tax considerations trivial in the face of such a significant loss. In accounting, depreciation refers to two aspects of the same concept. An actual reduction in the value of an asset, secondly the allocation in accounting statements of the purchase price. Don't get them mixed up.
Below is a table with two 'best' performing ICE/EV models for comparison. It should be noted that only certain Tesla's are retaining their value and typically experience a painfully long time-on-market and higher than normal turnover. Chinese EVs have almost no secondhand sale data and most dealers will not accept them as trade-ins. I am a huge proponent of Japanese made equipment as a disclosure of bias.
You drive an EV because you want to, not because its financially savvy or better for the environment. Perhaps celebrities of those who typically buy a prestige cars (and therefore are used to spending more than they need to) that’s not a problem.